Picking the SEC: Week 3

In week one I was 4-4 against the spread, and didn't do predictions for week two. This week, Vanderbilt plays Presbyterian, an FCS team. Picks are in bold.

This week Florida will see a more experienced quarterback in Tyler Bray than the say a week ago in Johnny Manziel.

The Headliners

Florida at Tennessee (-3)

This is a tough one, both Tennessee and Florida have already won decent games away from home, but both against opponents that remain largely a mystery at this point. Tennessee has some gamebreakers at wide receiver, and Tyler Bray is a more experienced passer than was Johnny Manziel, but I think the Florida defense is too much in the end. This one is going to be a close one though.

Alabama at Arkansas (+20)

If Tyler Wilson doesn't play, then Alabama will basically be able to name the score in this one. However, Arkansas isn't as bad as they were last week against Monroe, so put me down for a cover from the Razorbacks.

Arizona State at Missouri (-6)

Missouri wasn't as bad a the scoreboard showed in their loss to Georgia, and they're stilly plenty good enough to handle Arizona State.

Texas at Ole Miss (+9.5)

Christine Michael and the A&M offense look to bounce back after their disappointing start.

This might be the game that I'm most undecided on this week. On one hand, Texas has yet to face a team with a pulse and I'm still skeptical of their offensive ability. But on the other hand Ole Miss struggled with Central Arkansas and it might be unfair to call them a "team with a pulse." However, when in doubt, go with the home team so I'm taking Ole Miss to cover.

The Rest

Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn (-16.5)

ULM is riding high after their upset of Arkansas a week ago, but that's not going to help them in Auburn where the Tigers are trying to bounce back after getting torched by Mississippi State a week ago. Gene Chizik said this week that he's impressed with the progress quarterback Kiehl Frazier has made.

Texas A&M at SMU (+12.5)

Like Auburn, A&M is also trying to bounce back from a conference loss last week. If they can drop penalties and take some more shots downfield A&M should have little issue with SMU.

Florida Atlantic at Georgia (-42.5)

Like last week, I don't mess with lines in the 40's. Give me Florida Atlantic to cover.

Michigan State's Le'Veon Bell has been one of the big stories through the first two weeks of the season.

Idaho at LSU (-42.5)

See above.

Western Kentucky at Kentucky (-7)

Kentucky isn't a great football team by any stretch, but they're good enough to win by more than a touchdown at home against Western Kentucky... probably.

Mississippi State at Troy (+16)

Mississippi State is flying high after their demolishing of Auburn last week. But Troy has pulled off home upsets before, and 16 points is an awful lot for the home team to be taking. Still, Mississippi State is too good for this one to be this close. Going further, Mississippi State as a great chance to be undefeated when Tennessee comes to down in mid-October.

Bonus Picks

Non-SEC Game of the Week

Notre Dame at Michigan State (-5.5)

Notre Dame is improving, but they're overrated in the top 20 after beating just Navy and Purdue. This week the Irish are going to get a dose of reality when they play a hard-nosed Michigan State team dedicated to pounding the rock. They'll wear down Notre Dame's defensive line and have this game in hand by early fourth quarter.

Road Upset Special

Boston College at Northwestern (-3.5)

Northwestern got a big win last week by taking down Vanderbilt, but can they carry that momentum into this week's game against Boston College? Even though on paper they should win this game, I've got a feeling the fans will be going home disappointed this week.

Potential Best Game Nobody's Talking About

BYU at Utah (+3.5)

With a halfway decent schedule compared to others, BYU has a good chance to be this year's BCS busting team. Not only do they triple dip into the Pac 12 for strength-of-schedule help (Utah, Washington State and Oregon State), but they also face Notre Dame and the ACC's Georgia Tech later in the season. But aside from that potential, this is a rivalry game in Salt Lake City, and one that might be worth tuning in for at 7 on ESPN2 Saturday. It should be noted though that after their loss to Utah State last week, Utah should be bigger underdogs than 3.5 points, but you never know what can happen in a rivalry game.