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BCS Breakdown

  • Here's my run-down of what teams are still in contention for the 10 BCS spots and how it all shakes out.

    Independants: Notre Dame wraps up a spot in the MNC game with a win at USC. Even with a loss, they have a spot as an at-large if they finish in the top 8. (1)

    Pac-12: Even if Stanford can get a win next saturday at UCLA, the Bruins will get another shot at the Cardinal six days later in the PAC-12 championship. (Stanford would be the host.) This looks like the conference champion will get one BCS spot and Oregon will get the at-large spot. Should Stanford lose to UCLA, the Oregon vs. Oregon St. winner would face UCLA in the championship. In any case, I see the PAC-12 with Oregon and one of Stanford, Oregon St., or UCLA earning a bid. (2)

    SEC: Barring a massive upset in the final week, Alabama and Georgia will duke it out for the auto-bid in the SEC CG. Should Florida beat FSU, they likely jump the CG loser and finish in the BCS Top 4, thus assuring themselves of an at-large bid. With a Florida loss, it becomes a toss up between the CG loser, LSU, A&M, UF, and South Carolina (if they beat Clemson). All will probably be 2-loss teams and each would have at least one quality win to point to, but only one team has Johnny Football. We all know that this should end up with A&M in New Orleans, but it wouldn't be a sure thing. In any case, the SEC is a lock to get 2 BCS bids. (2)

    Big Ten: It is likely Nebraska (final game vs. Iowa) and Wisconsin will play in the conference championship for the only B1G BCS slot. Michigan would have to beat Ohio St. in the final week and catipult from No. 19 to No. 14 in the BCS (despite a then 9-3 record) for the B1G to have even a mathematical chance of an at-large bid. (1)

    Big East: Rutgers and Louisville will face off on November 30th with the conference championship likely on the line. it will be the first game either team has played vs. a ranked opponent. Each team has one loss to an unranked opponent already. Unfortunately, the winner is guaraneed a BCS slot despite the fact that 8-10 more deserving teams will not get in. (1)

    ACC: The ACC is incredibly top heavy, and both top teams are in one division. If FSU and Clemson both knock off ranked SEC teams next week, we could be looking at both getting BCS bids. Should either lose, they would likely drop out of the Top 14 and lose all hope of an at-large. The other would play in the conference championship against Georgia Tech (likely a 6-6 team at that point). If GT pulls the huge upset, they would crash the BCS party and FSU or Clemson would possibly still get an at-large bid. FSU and Clemson likely control the conferences hopes of an at-large this weekend. Unless they go 2-0, the ACC is staring down the barrel at a one-bid year. (1-2)

    Big 12: Ahhh the Big 12. KState can still clinch the conference with a win at home against Texas on Dec. 1st. Another loss would give OU the conference championship (assuming they take care of OSU (at home) and TCU). Should KState win, Oklahoma and the ACC #2 team would likely be in contention for the final BCS spot, with Clemson and FSU controlling their own destiny IMO. Should KSU lose at home to t.u., (here's where is gets crazy) they would both likely be 10-2 (assuming a t.u. win over TCU) and in the Top 14. If a second ACC team is not available, t.u. would end up in a BCS bowl. That's right, the same t.u. that dropped one to WV, got dismantled by OU, survived both QB and coaching controversies, outlasted Baylor 56-50, and came back to beat KU in the final seconds. They could conceivably still sneak in the BCS race. (1-2)

    What to Watch (Competitive games listed in order of BCS importance):
    This Weekend:
    UF vs. FSU
    USC(e) vs. Clemson
    USC vs. Notre Dame
    Oregon vs. Oregon St.
    Stanford vs. UCLA
    OU vs. OSU
    Final Weekend:
    Pac-12 CG
    SEC CG
    ACC CG
    B1G CG
    KState vs. t.u.
    Rutgers vs. Louisville

    This post was edited by psyc99 17 months ago

  • Good stuff, great post Psyc. I have a couple of opinions on where A&M ends up.

    I know the "Johnny Football is a big draw" thing is true, but if a team is in the top four then they're automatically in the BCS as long as one of the national championship teams isn't an at-large from their conference.

    That means for A&M to make a BCS game the loser of the conference championship game (or Florida) can't be ranked in the top 4. If they are, then that team is going to get an automatic bid. That means for this conversation to even matter, Florida State has to beat Florida. So we have to operate under that assumption.

    More directly though, the Sugar Bowl is going to have to choose A&M over nearby LSU AND over a Georgia team with a better regular season record. Is that possible? Sure, it's possible, but is it probable?

    That's why I think there's a chance A&M makes a BCS game, but I stand by what I said last week when I said I still think it's most likely that A&M ends up in the Cotton Bowl.

    A&M's best chance at a BCS game is actually if the SEC gets shutout of the national championship game. If the SEC Champion has to go to New Orleans, then the Fiesta Bowl is much more likely to pick A&M than they are an SEC East team.

    Email: AubreyBloom at gmail Follow On Twitter:

  • For the sake of my argument, I'm taking UF and UGA out of the equation because end of season losses to FSU and Bama will make them less attractive to the Sugar Bowl than LSU or A&M.

    Aubrey, you don't think the Sugar will take A&M over LSU, not only because of the Johnny Football draw, but also the influx of money from out of state fans? A large portion of the LSU people that would go to the Sugar bowl already live in NOLA. Most of A&M's fans will come from Houston/Dallas. I have to think those two factors would give us an edge.

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  • Big games for A&M are UCLA over Stanford, but then loses to Oregon (which also beats Oregon State). In that scenario, no Pac-12 team other than Oregon (automatic qualifier) has fewer than 3 losses. That opens a spot for another at large.

    Also, FSU over Florida obviously. It sucks because it weakens our SOS, etc., but we need UF to be out of the top-4. If Bama is in the BCS title game, I think the Sugar committee chooses between us and LSU.

  • Agree with FSU having to beat Florida. Otherwise it's not even a debate. I think any of the schools could sell out the game. With ticket sales not being an issue, I'm assuming it comes down to t.v. ratings and who draw the biggest audience. LSU v. Bama was the number one rated tv game, A&M v. Bama was number 2. If Bama loses a close SEC CG to Georgia, I think they are in the BCS anyway. LSU, A&M, Georgia all would have compelling cases, but I think Johnny Football would make this probably the second highest rated BCS game behind the MNC. Maybe I'm just being a homer here, but he's getting a ton of exposure. Sumlin doesn't hurt either. Potential COY winner and Heisman winner together.

  • That's the way I think about it. For the local economy, A&M is a much, much better choice. How much does that factor in, though? I honestly don't know.

  • I'm not sure how much bowl committees are tied into the local business community and how much they just care about sponsorship dollars and advertising.

  • I hear that argument, but nobody seemed to think that argument was valid when I was arguing why the Cotton Bowl would take LSU over A&M. Why would the Sugar Bowl be any different? I think plenty of people will be coming in from out town for that one.

    Plus the Sugar Bowl is January 2nd, I don't think the city of New Orleans is going to be hurting for revenue around New Years.

    Email: AubreyBloom at gmail Follow On Twitter:

  • Good stuff. Well done.

    I do disagree on FSU and Clemson needing to go 2-0 this weekend. Really, if Clemson beats SCAR and OSU drops OU, they would probably still get two in (presumably FSU being the winner of the conference championship).

  • Aubrey it's simple, because LSU fans would not spend money eating out of dumpsters and sleeping on the streets and riding four-wheelers around Dallas. Not to mention the smell.

  • Excellent points here.

    Email: AubreyBloom at gmail Follow On Twitter:

  • If the Pac-12 somehow only gets one bid, that would help the ACC or Big12, but the SEC is getting two bids regardless. The SEC games are all that really affects us from here on out.