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Any new news on SEC TV deal and SEC channel launch? News on payout, etc?
Nope but I haven't talked to Dr Loftin in awhile. The key to the very big money scenario is that the SEC holds back serious games -- think A&M vs Tennessee, Georgia vs South Carolina -- for the vertical network(s). Then the SEC has to be prepared to FIGHT for a high carriage fee. The first part -- big time games -- should be easy. The SEC has a ton of marquee programs. There's enough inventory available....especially if the SEC goes to 16 or 18 teams.
The second part just takes balls. Also you have to understand that there's going to be a year or two of uneven distribution. Even YES (Yankees) had uneven distribution for a year or two (Cablevision was a holdout) in the NY area. But now YES is a god damn money machine.
I really stressed that to Bowen. Think BIG on the revenue. But that's a strategic decision for whoever the decision makers are. I told him -- the SEC needs to think BIG.
I believe the network could generate $1.8 billion in distributable cash flow at full distribution, or $100m per institution if there are 18 members. That's 5 times as much as the Big 12 was willing to guarantee us. And that doesn't include other revenue sources such as the 1st (broadcast -- CBS) and 2nd (3rd party cable -- ESPN) tier rights, NCAA basketball, bowls, championship game (football), conference tournament (basketball), etc.
The conference may have to give up some equity in the network, which would reduce the $1.8 billion number...to someone like DirecTV. But not that much. 20%?
Thanks. Keep us posted.
This is the kind of content that I pay Gigem247 for. Thanks mediaguysf1.
Just checked my math against ESPN and ESPN makes about $10 billion in combined domestic carriage fees and advertising. So that's about 5x what I think a SEC channel could generate. My numbers may be a tad aggressive...perhaps. But, it would be very difficult for pay-TV distributors to not pick up SEC channels if there is a substantial number of high quality live football games. That's the very definition of "must have" programming throughout the South and in many households nationwide. The Conference would have a ton of leverage.
Again, the key is...will the SEC hold back some (not all) very good games from 3rd party right deals (i.e. CBS and ESPN)...and will they be very aggressive about fighting for a very high license fee.
If the SEC were to create a huge revenue disparity with the other conferences, it offers the conference members a long term competitive advantage that will be hard to break. You create a positive feedback loop whereby higher structural revenues >> competitive spending on coaches and facilities >> better recruits >> more wins >> better recruits >> more wins.
Media - What exactly do you do?
...who the heck seriously knows except God, and Sumlin. ~ Aggiemom6
Sounds like he's an expert in badassery
Win we shall, yes we can, yes we will.
Exactly my thoughts.
I'm guessing something to do with media.
Just a hunch.
Who are the 4 teams?
Well, if they can make anywhere near this amount of money, no conference buy out fees would be an impediment for a school to join the SEC. So they really could get ANYONE they want that is even remotely close geographically IMO since SEC already (a) has the brand and (b) would have all the money. Only issue would be the conferences where schools have granted media rights which I'm sure would be very hard to get out of if possible (but most of the SEC's targets would be in the ACC where I don't think the schools have granted them).
Some of the schools I frequently hear about as targets are UNC/NC State (either or both), Virgina Tech, Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville. My ideal 4 would be Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Louisville. If just 2, I'd say Clemson and Florida State since Clemson already has the rivalry with South Carolina and Florida State with Florida. Louisville has the rivalry with Kentucky (but mainly in basketball although Kentucky may get better in the future with their new coach). Not sure how likely any of those are though since the ACC is a pretty strong conference as well so it would have to be a lot of money.
This post was edited by RealAgg06 13 months ago
Not gonna be Clemson or FSU. New teams will be from new states. VaTech (more likely), Virginia (less likely), NC/NCS, Duke (doubtful because of culture--they really fit right where they're at). Louisville has academic and geography issues.
One caveat about buyout fees not being an issue would be Big 12 teams. They don't have a buyout, they just gave up the right for their third tier rights. No conference would take OU ( for instance) but not let that team be on TV for the next 9 years.
The true test of a man's intelligence is how much he agrees with you.
I agree with you. I've also heard Florida is pretty strongly opposed to Florida State joining the SEC so that's another issue. I deliberately didn't list Duke even though I have seen it listed for the same reasons you said. Duke would be a better fit than UConn but still a really bad fit.
I really don't see the SEC wanting any of the Big 12 teams with the possible exception of an Oklahoma but then you have to take OK State and I just don't see it.
I actually would be more likely to believe the SEC just picks up 2 more schools like VaTech and one of the North Carolina schools to get two good programs and further expand the footprint of the SEC up the east coast. We'll see.
I'd rather see okie state than any of the before mentioned schools.
Why? So there will be another SEC school with a border to Texas? No thanks.
North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Then Dixie will be complete.
I think they would hurt WPS and mizzou more than us.
Even so, they bring nothing to the table via TV sets, have no academic credibility and would cause more harm than good. This is an elite conference for elite schools. Okie State doesn't fit the bill.
back out of my hole - Just looking for conversation on this because I like to talk about media rights and tv deals.
I had to comment on this because any expansion would affect Texas one way or the other plus I follow all of the TV deals for each conference. Take everything I have with a grain of salt because it hinges on a New AD and leadership with my team which is the reason we are in this mess right now. my question would be how many more teams are they looking to add - up to 16 or 18? I agree on VA Tech, but would they look at Texas? I think the SEC would look at Texas over Florida State and Clemson due to reasons you guys alluded to above - Florida, SC plus the brand will be always be bigger than Clemson or at least greater than or equivalent to FSU. Plus the states that have SEC teams in them are not as big as Texas and those states don't want to lose that recruiting advantage in such a small state. Texas could support that. Personally, I think you guys would want Texas in given the trajectory of both programs and coaching staffs and we are not hiring Nick Saban anytime soon. Given the talent and coaching, you guys would run us into the ground at least for the next 2 years.
Assuming new leadership and attorneys getting us out of the current deal which I am sure could happen especially if that is the number figure for the new SEC TV deal. It will come down to money.
We will see.
Hookem for Life!
No offense, TB. But there is no way in hell A&M would want y'all in the SEC. They would do everything in their power to nix that move..
And I'd bet the house that Missouri and Arkansas still have a bad taste in their mouths when they were in the same conference, too.
I am not looking to offend anybody by posing the scenario, but Slive will look at what will move the needle money wise to try and negotiate a larger payout for the conference. Very few schools move the needle automatically even given Texas's current shitty run they will still move the needle. I am just posing a scenario. You guys have nothing to worry about in this case. we would follow you and you have a better staff than we do now so the field results will take care of themselves. It would most likely embarrass us even more with Mack coaching and you will take more money.
I have no doubt aTm would do everything in their power to nix the idea, but you have been their a year and come from the biggest state with some of the best recruiting grounds and have nothing to fear about us. In my opinion, UF and UGA and SC mainly UF are not going to open themselves because they have seniority over you guys.
I am just having a conversation. I don't see OU because of OSU. I see Louisville being stronger than UCONN as a choice. It will be fun to watch play out.
Texas would get crushed in the SEC
That is exactly my point. It is a win-win where you guys are concerned. Dodds missed an opportunity and we need new leadership so we will see when that happens how things play out. It won't happen with dodds. His choices don't reflect my choices as a fan.
Always appreciate well informed and unbiased opinions. Good posts TexBrenham
So hypothetically if Texas joins...the Longhorn network just gets the plug pulled right away?
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